Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
