It was 60 days in the past when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
